The Vanishing

Take 100 Orthodox Jews, 100 Modern Orthodox Jews, 100 Conservative Jews, 100 Reform Jews and 100 Unaffiliated Jews. In four generations, how many will be left of each?

According to a new study based on current intermarriage and birth rates, 100 Orthodox Jews will yield a staggering 2,588 Jews! Modern Orthodox fare slightly less well, with 346 Jews. For Conservative, Reform and Unaffiliated, the projections are downright disheartening. After four generations there will be 24, 13 and 5 left respectively.

There are a couple of obvious problems with this study -- current intermarriage and birth rates will not necessarily remain constant; there is no evidence that the offspring of each denomination will remain in that denomination; there is no accounting for other factors that might actually lead to growth in the numbers of Reform and Conservative Jews.

And then there's the biggest problem of all -- this is not news. Even with its methodological and conceptual flaws, the thrust of the study is basically correct. Orthodox Jews are far better at increasing their numbers than non-Orthodox Jews. A far more interesting question is therefore what effect this will have on the demographics of the Jewish people. Over time, the Orthodox will substantially increase their representation as a fraction of total world Jewry, a development that has serious implications for Jewish communal life. The authors of the study would have contributed much more to our understanding by addressing that question than by interpreting the numbers as an ode to the virtues of Orthodox education.